I”m overjoyed to see that the number of Patreon subscribers is increasing. One of the virtues is getting feedback from you. This is the best way to extend the scope of the approach that we’re interested in spreading. One subscriber just sent me the following note:
When worked in refineries I know they can’t exceed their max operating window. They will lose insurance if they dont stop and do maint. and this is a fed requirement regardless of what idiot trump says.Without major shutdowns . I went thru them.
Production drops to zero under major ones. The main ones u would be concerned with is crude units, or crackers and with major Exxon plant GOIGN down in Beaumont soon and then putting off all kinds of turnarounds until next yr is going to cause problems. As long as they don’t have failures or explosions but honestly those turnarounds r very important and they r scheduled months and years in advance. They have contractors lined up and lots of purchase of equipment and concrete work and pump refurbishing. So just moving all that is costly and will impact personnel levels .
The list near the end is a big deal. 10 crude units r GOIGN down next yr at 7 refineries would be worth watching. It depends heavily on crude shipments getting here and how much the SPOR is replenished bec I can’t see how they can do it even tho the oil companies r contractually obligated to start refilling starting nov 1.
Trump is stupid to risk this. He’s playing chicken and thinking he can steal enuf on the hi seas and get more thru Hormuz. He’s likely to get more dangerous if he can’t meet demand. All I can think of is farmers not planting but that would have to be a lot of them . And cut backs in logistics. They r going to be cutting it close. Bec I just don’t see refineries not having at least a few issues and the Joliet IL Exxon still hasn’t gotten back to full capacity yet so they have been off their production for about 12-13 days. Thats a lot of production .
U might want to skim. FYI
Are any of the refineries that you know of uh do for their five-year federal shutdown where they have massive maintenance done?
