I don’t understand the rise of interest rates to ovear 5% for US 30-year bonds, and over 4.55% for 10 year bonds. The market impression seems to be that oil prices will soar. Right. And this will increase inflation, leading the Fed to imagine that it can slow this down by raising rates. (A non sequitur.)

            But a blockage of trade in oil, fertilizer, sulfur, naphtha for plastics, etc. will lead to close-downs of large parts of the economy of many countries. This will cause depression for major industries. Their stock markets will collapse. Investors will move to safety – in government bonds, because the U.S. and other governments and their central banks always can simply print the money to pay.

            If governments do not roll back interest rates, housing mortgage credit will dry up. Commercial mortgage loans will not be rolled over, in the face of falling office rental rates. So what the markets imagine to be a knee-jerk reaction to rising oil prices leaves out of account the structural interconnections of today’s finance-capitalist economies.